Aroldis Chapman - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Aroldis Chapman is currently the primary closer for the Boston Red Sox and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-06-23 to 2026-07-22 (PT) · Total appearances: 10
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 10.0% | 30.0%1 2 | 20.0%3 | 40.0% | - | 100.0% |
| Total | - | - | - | 10.0% | 30.0% | 20.0% | 40.0% | - | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 1 | 31 2 | 23 | 4 | - | 10 |
| Total | - | - | - | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | - | 10 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 44% | Closer |
| 2026-07-21 | 23% | Closer |
| 2026-07-20 | 27% | Closer |
| 2026-07-19 | 12% | Closer |
| 2026-07-18 | 23% | Closer |
| 2026-07-17 | 42% | Closer |
| 2026-07-12 | 23% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 0% |
| Garrett Whitlock | Setup | 0% |
| Justin Slaten | Setup | 0% |
Team page: Boston Red Sox Bullpen Hierarchy