Aroldis Chapman - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Aroldis Chapman is currently the primary closer for the Boston Red Sox and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-05-06 to 2026-06-04 (PT) · Total appearances: 7
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 14.3% | 28.6%2 | 42.9%3 | - | 14.3%1 | 100.0% |
| Total | - | - | - | 14.3% | 28.6% | 42.9% | - | 14.3% | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 1 | 22 | 33 | - | 11 | 7 |
| Total | - | - | - | 1 | 2 | 3 | - | 1 | 7 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 25% | Closer |
| 2026-06-04 | 26% | Closer |
| 2026-06-03 | 29% | Closer |
| 2026-06-02 | 27% | Closer |
| 2026-05-31 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-05-30 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-05-29 | 24% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 25% |
| Justin Slaten | Setup | 2% |
| Jovani Morán | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Boston Red Sox Bullpen Hierarchy