Aroldis Chapman - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Aroldis Chapman is currently the primary closer for the Boston Red Sox and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Boston Red Sox
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-03-22 to 2026-04-20 (PT) · Total appearances: 8
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | 12.5%2 | - | - | 12.5% | - | - | - | - | 25.0% |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 37.5%1 | 12.5%3 | - | 25.0% | - | 75.0% |
| Total | 12.5% | - | - | 50.0% | 12.5% | - | 25.0% | - | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | 12 | - | - | 1 | - | - | - | - | 2 |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 31 | 13 | - | 2 | - | 6 |
| Total | 1 | - | - | 4 | 1 | - | 2 | - | 8 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-04-20 | 26% | Closer |
| 2026-04-19 | 28% | Closer |
| 2026-04-18 | 20% | Closer |
| 2026-04-17 | 25% | Closer |
| 2026-04-15 | 26% | Closer |
| 2026-04-14 | 26% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 24% |
| Garrett Whitlock | Setup | 3% |
| Greg Weissert | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Boston Red Sox Bullpen Hierarchy