Emilio Pagán - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Emilio Pagán is currently the primary closer for the Cincinnati Reds and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Cincinnati Reds
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-03-22 to 2026-04-20 (PT) · Total appearances: 11
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | 9.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 9.1% |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 9.1% | 9.1% | 36.4%1 2 3 | 27.3% | - | 9.1% | 90.9% |
| Total | 9.1% | - | 9.1% | 9.1% | 36.4% | 27.3% | - | 9.1% | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 1 |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 1 | 1 | 41 2 3 | 3 | - | 1 | 10 |
| Total | 1 | - | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | - | 1 | 11 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 19% | Closer |
| 2026-04-20 | 19% | Closer |
| 2026-04-19 | 20% | Closer |
| 2026-04-18 | 18% | Closer |
| 2026-04-17 | 15% | Closer |
| 2026-04-16 | 21% | Closer |
| 2026-04-15 | 18% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 19% |
| Tony Santillan | Setup | 3% |
| Graham Ashcraft | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Cincinnati Reds Bullpen Hierarchy