Louis Varland - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Louis Varland is currently the primary closer for the Toronto Blue Jays and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Toronto Blue Jays
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-06-23 to 2026-07-22 (PT) · Total appearances: 7
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 14.3% | 14.3% | 28.6%1 | 14.3% | 14.3%2 | 14.3%3 | 100.0% |
| Total | - | - | 14.3% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 |
| Total | - | - | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-07-22 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-07-21 | 25% | Closer |
| 2026-07-20 | 29% | Closer |
| 2026-07-19 | 23% | Closer |
| 2026-07-18 | 24% | Closer |
| 2026-07-17 | 27% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | Closer | 24% |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup | 3% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen Hierarchy