Louis Varland - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Louis Varland is currently the primary closer for the Toronto Blue Jays and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Toronto Blue Jays
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-05-06 to 2026-06-04 (PT) · Total appearances: 9
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | 11.1% | 11.1% | - | 22.2%2 3 | - | 11.1%1 | - | 55.6% |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 22.2% | - | 22.2% | - | - | 44.4% |
| Total | - | 11.1% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 11.1% | - | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | 1 | 1 | - | 22 3 | - | 11 | - | 5 |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | - | 2 | - | 2 | - | - | 4 |
| Total | - | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | - | 9 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | 25% | Closer |
| 2026-06-04 | 16% | Closer |
| 2026-06-03 | 21% | Closer |
| 2026-06-02 | 23% | Closer |
| 2026-05-31 | 22% | Closer |
| 2026-05-30 | 26% | Closer |
| 2026-05-29 | 23% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | Closer | 25% |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup | 3% |
| Braydon Fisher | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen Hierarchy