Lucas Erceg - Bullpen Role & Save Probability
Lucas Erceg is currently the primary closer for the Kansas City Royals and profiles as one of their top save options.
Last updated:
Player Type
Relief Pitcher · Kansas City Royals
Bullpen Role
Closer
Usage Matrices
Sample: 2026-03-22 to 2026-04-20 (PT) · Total appearances: 8
Usage Matrix (%)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | 12.5% | - | - | 12.5% |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 12.5% | - | - | 50.0%1 2 3 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Total | - | - | 12.5% | - | - | 62.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% | 100.0% |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Usage Matrix (Apps)
| Outs Remaining | <=-3 | -2 | -1 | tie | +1 | +2 | +3 | >=4 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10+ | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7–9 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5–6 | - | - | - | - | - | 1 | - | - | 1 |
| 4 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| <=3 | - | - | 1 | - | - | 41 2 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Total | - | - | 1 | - | - | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
Notes
¹ most recent appearance
² second most recent appearance
³ third most recent appearance
Save Probability Trend
| Date (PT) | Save Probability | Model Role (Historical) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 17% | Closer |
| 2026-04-20 | 16% | Closer |
| 2026-04-19 | 14% | Closer |
| 2026-04-18 | 13% | Closer |
| 2026-04-17 | 12% | Closer |
| 2026-04-16 | 23% | Closer |
| 2026-04-15 | 20% | Closer |
Team Bullpen Context
| Pitcher | Role | Save Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | Closer | 17% |
| Matt Strahm | Setup | 2% |
| Nick Mears | Setup | 1% |
Team page: Kansas City Royals Bullpen Hierarchy